When to lean into private marketplaces, when the open exchange still wins, and how to measure incrementality across both surfaces without double counting reach.
Programmatic display, native, video and Connected TV continue to consolidate around a smaller set of high-quality supply paths. In 2026, three trends matter more than the others: curated PMPs as a default buying surface, contextual signals overtaking 3P cookie identity, and the rapid normalization of CTV ad-pod auctions.
1. Curated PMPs become the default
Curated marketplaces moved 41% of net open-exchange spend in Q4 2025, according to TrendBuzz internal data, up from 27% in the same quarter a year earlier. Buyers are increasingly using curated packages as their primary buying surface rather than as an experimental layer.
The decision driver is simple: bid-request quality. A curated package surfaces only the supply that meets brand suitability, viewability, contextual and quality criteria pre-bid. Buyers see fewer bid requests but win a higher percentage of those they bid on, leading to a typical 18–24% improvement in working media.
2. Cookieless targeting catches up
Field data across 240 campaigns shows that a contextual + on-device cohort blend now delivers 92% of the lift produced by legacy third-party identity stacks. For CPG and travel verticals the gap closes to 96%. The remaining gap is in long-tail retargeting use cases, where probabilistic methods still trail deterministic IDs.
3. CTV ad-pod auctions normalize
Ad-pod CTV auctions — where a single VAST pod is filled by multiple winners across competitive separation rules — are now the standard for SSAI-stitched inventory. The change forces buyers to think about pod position, not just CPM, and forces SSPs to expose deduplicated pod outcomes.
What to do about it
- Move always-on lines to curated PMPs first; reserve open exchange for prospecting and tail reach.
- Migrate identity-heavy audiences to contextual + cohort, and run a parallel reads test against your MMP for at least 30 days.
- For CTV, configure pod position and competitive separation rules explicitly in your DSP, and require log-level pod outcome reporting from your SSP.
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